Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 21.259742 25.546283 30.260707 35.802271 42.108466 49.032225 57.178651
2025-08-17 15.000734 20.612152 27.414054 36.140531 46.905131 59.612759 75.601158
2025-08-24 11.283876 17.311352 25.208196 36.040293 50.216819 67.833038 91.038775
2025-08-31 8.445942 14.372154 22.710228 34.844184 51.549077 73.211799 102.831926
2025-09-07 6.936925 12.919167 21.863004 35.528673 55.121859 81.393955 118.361175
2025-09-14 5.457084 11.166267 20.247581 34.810106 56.525357 86.580625 130.016994
2025-09-21 4.634360 10.298669 19.801004 35.666372 60.096106 94.780207 145.978689
2025-09-28 3.533779 8.683925 17.889592 33.996867 59.720246 97.294574 154.069125
2025-10-05 3.102727 8.232182 17.845210 35.248343 63.773645 106.281714 171.560392
2025-10-12 2.686394 7.712323 17.592119 36.090662 67.187909 114.426345 188.096048
2025-10-19 2.313804 7.196338 17.261751 36.736799 70.279909 122.169540 204.273859
2025-10-26 2.015935 6.777739 17.049908 37.544481 73.641601 130.415681 221.432141
2025-11-02 1.605529 6.003693 16.083765 37.016931 74.959964 135.905583 235.230471
2025-11-09 1.330586 5.501827 15.610267 37.371878 77.829226 144.016442 253.428379
2025-11-16 1.074839 4.959434 14.947909 37.269531 79.855276 150.824945 269.821752
2025-11-23 0.808150 4.264149 13.797525 36.041521 79.743026 154.096956 280.750779
2025-11-30 0.682711 3.990773 13.603731 36.744321 83.166315 163.308223 301.331693
2025-12-07 0.523269 3.506879 12.781502 36.006533 83.825259 167.874434 314.588692
2025-12-14 0.446797 3.320633 12.706673 36.885693 87.592014 177.843811 336.865673
2025-12-21 0.313733 2.785180 11.545901 35.171435 86.187854 178.806911 344.403594
2025-12-28 0.275721 2.699501 11.673442 36.456502 90.779837 190.397013 369.821781
2026-01-04 0.234241 2.566049 11.629259 37.321283 94.560973 200.668989 393.301918
2026-01-11 0.195496 2.418304 11.509564 37.984572 97.955595 210.352292 416.033816